Švýcarsko
Německo
Itálie
Chorvatsko
Rakousko
ČínaMore growth in 2025
Growth has been impacted by the war in Ukraine as well as the severe floods of August 2023, but it will improve in 2025, slightly exceeding that of the European Union (EU) as a whole. Private consumption (50% of GDP) is expected to remain the main driver, supported by controlled inflation and consistently strong wage growth. The trend is reinforced by the reform of the public sector wage system, which came into effect on 1 January, 2025. The reform provides for a gradual average increase in wages of 25-30% out to 2028, with the first of six increments applied this year (at least EUR 100 gross for many workers). The labour market will remain tight against a backdrop of relatively low unemployment (4.6% in December 2024) and a prolonged labour shortage in several key sectors (automotive, healthcare, transport, ICT).
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue its monetary easing cycle in 2025, improving credit conditions for households and businesses. Fiscal policy will focus on consolidating public finances while also supporting the economy. Investment (21% of GDP), primarily public, will continue to benefit from the Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), which, under the European NextGenerationEU framework, still has more than 60% of the total allocation package available until 2026, which amounts to EUR 1.5 billion. In this context, energy investments will continue, with more than EUR 150 million earmarked for modernising the electrical grids in Ljubljana, Maribor, and Celje, as well as for railway infrastructure projects.
Manufacturing activity (31% of GDP), which is highly export-oriented, will be driven by the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors, while the automotive segment will remain affected by Germany’s weak performance, as it is Slovenia’s main trading partner. However, Slovenia is well integrated into Italian and Swiss production chains, providing diversification alternatives and resilience against fluctuations in the European market. Moreover, stabilising energy prices will support the recovery of energy-intensive industries (metallurgy, chemicals and paper). Tourism (10% of GDP) will continue to thrive, boosted by Nova Gorica’s being named European Capital of Culture for 2025, and by ongoing investments.
Solid accounts
Despite efforts to restore public finances, the budget balance remained in deficit in 2024, mainly due to post-flood reconstruction costs. However, it improved compared to 2023, supported by higher revenues, particularly after the introduction of two one-off taxes: a temporary increase in corporate tax from 19% to 22% for a period of five years and a new tax on bank assets, set at 0.2% of total bank assets, also for five years. At the same time, expenditures were lower than expected, thanks to prudent management and an efficient allocation of reconstruction funds. In 2025, the deficit is expected to continue shrinking due to the gradual phasing out of energy subsidies and additional EU funding. However, costs associated with wage increases, agriculture, ecological and digital transitions, as well as defence, will keep the budget balance in negative territory. The public debt ratio, which is mostly domestic, will continue to decline after peaking at over 80% in 2020. The ongoing reform of the healthcare and pension systems should further support this trend.
Slovenia will continue to maintain a current account surplus in 2025, with an expected improvement compared to 2024. This surplus is primarily driven by strong exports (90% of GDP), particularly in the services sector, where tourism and transport continue to benefit from sustained demand in European markets. However, the lingering post-Covid weakness of the German automotive industry, which is a key partner for Slovenia, could be further exacerbated by the introduction of US tariffs. On the other hand, the pharmaceutical sector, largely unaffected by international sanctions and accounting for more than 50% of Slovenia’s exports to Russia, is expected to continue supporting the country’s trade performance. Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows are expected to accelerate, buoyed by recent legislation facilitating foreign investor entry, notably through reduced bureaucracy and the introduction of tax incentives.
Lack of consensus on reform makes for a tense political situation
The Freedom Movement (GS), a social-liberal and environmental party led by Robert Golob, won the April 2022 general elections with 41 of the 90 seats in the National Assembly. The party formed a left-wing coalition with the Social Democrats (7 seats) and the Left Party (5 seats). The Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), a right-wing populist party, and New Slovenia, a Christian-democratic party, form the opposition with 27 and 8 seats, respectively. Although the SDS called for a snap election in 2025 owing to mounting disagreements and controversies in the government, elections are expected to take place as scheduled in April 2026.
On the social front, the country faces major challenges, particularly regarding healthcare and pensions, where reforms are needed due to demographic changes. However, these reforms are making slow progress due to a lack of consensus among the governing coalition and more broadly at national level. The healthcare system is particularly affected by staff shortages and long waiting times, while pension reforms continue to stall despite the urgency prompted by an ageing population. These issues add to other ongoing social challenges, such as the wide gender pay gap and rising poverty affecting the most vulnerable populations.
In foreign policy, relations with Croatia are marked by tensions over the border dispute concerning the Bay of Piran. In October 2023, Slovenia reintroduced police border controls with Croatia and Hungary, citing organised crime and escalating tensions in the Middle East, which are impacting migration flows. These controls will remain in place until June 2025 at the least, and are likely to be prolonged.
